Statistical Issues

A new version of the C statistic
  • It is well-known (I hope) to all users of XSPEC that the chi-squared statistic is not appropriate if there are small numbers of counts (< 25) in any bins in the spectrum.

  • The solution is to use the C statistic (Cash 1978 ApJ 228, 939) which assumes only that the counts in each bin follow the Poisson distribution. One drawback of this statistic is that any background must be explicitly modelled.

  • Building on the work of Wachter et al. (1979 ApJ 230, 274) we have derived and implemented a new statistic which works on data when there is a background spectrum. The basic trick is to use a background model with one parameter for each spectral bin and to solve analytically for these parameter values.

  • With this new statistic it is no longer necessary to use the dangerous technique of grouping together spectral bins till the combined counts are in the Gaussian regime and chi-squared can be used.

Bayesian methods
  • A completely different approach to the same problem is provided by Bayesian analysis. A straightforward extension of the work of Loredo can be used to derive the probability distribution of the model parameters of interest.

  • The equivalent in Bayesian terms of confidence contours is a joint probability distribution. This corresponds to what most astronomers think they mean when they talk of confidence contours but requires rather more CPU to calculate.